Kinetic theory for the emergence of complex behavior in social and economic systems

An Optimization and Agent-Based Socio-Technical Modeling Approach for Engineered Complex Adaptive Systems

Ron Askin

Arizona State University
[SLIDES]

We examine a class of large-scale engineered systems that are capable of exhibiting complex adaptive system behavior during operation. A multi-layered descriptive framework is proposed that describes the physical system infrastructure, social interactions and the decision/control mechanism. Several structural properties of system status and behavior are derived. Electric power consumption with dynamic consumer pricing is used to demonstrate the modeling approach. Consumers are modeled as interacting agents and identified by preference-behavior classes impacted by innate characteristics, supplier rewards and social relationships. Experimental results demonstrate possible dynamic system trajectories and the effects of directed incentives.